Reflecting on 2025, it is evident that the global M&A landscape was defined not by a return to pre-crisis stability but by a strategic adaptation to volatility. The year began with many market participants holding their breath, waiting for perfect macro clarity, such as lower interest rates, geopolitical calm, and tariff stability.
However, as activity accelerated in the second half of the year, a new consensus emerged among Translink Corporate Finance’s global partners: the “wait and see” era has officially come to an end. We have entered a period of “accepted risk,” where dealmakers are no longer pausing for headwinds to clear, but instead pricing these variables into their models to complete deals.
Here, Translink partners from Spain, Sweden, the UK, Italy, Finland, France, and South Africa reflect on the pivotal trends of 2025. From record-breaking deal volumes in Southern Europe to a resurgence of investor appetite in the Nordics, the experts provide a comprehensive review of the middle market. These are the sectors that drove activity in 2025, the creative deal structures that helped bridge valuation gaps, and why the momentum built this year sets the stage for a strong 2026.
A resurgence in regional dealmaking
Despite a slow start to the year, 2025 evolved into a period of robust activity across key markets. In Southern Europe, Translink Spain reported a record year for closed transactions. Translink Corporate Finance Spain Partners Oscar Llaudet, Tran-Minh Thai, José Maria Banús, and Josep Gutierrez attribute this success to a combination of a high-performing Spanish economy and an influx of foreign companies seeking to establish local hubs. Furthermore, a generational transition is sweeping the Spanish corporate landscape; many companies founded three to four decades ago lack succession plans, creating opportunities for foreign acquirers to step in.
In the Nordics, the transaction market has clearly shifted gears. Fredrik Ullberg and Anton Danielsson of Translink Sweden note that investor appetite returned in a way unseen in 2024, with increased activity on both the buy and sell sides. This resurgence is exemplified by complex cross-border mandates, such as the consolidated acquisition of eight Norwegian target companies in a single transaction.
Meanwhile, the UK market proved “cautiously resilient”. According to Translink Corporate Finance UK Partner Andy Haigh, while overall deal volumes dipped, total deal value increased, indicating a “flight to quality/size” from investors. Private equity remained quieter on platform investments outside of hot sectors like professional services, but software companies remained highly attractive. Haigh notes that the second half of 2025 saw a distinct pickup in activity, fuelling a consensus that 2026 will be a strong year for UK dealmaking.
Navigating geopolitics, tariffs, and trade wars
While local markets heated up, the global stage remained complicated by conflict and trade policies. Marc Irisson, Partner at Translink Corporate Finance France, observes that clients with strong US export exposure have been heavily impacted, suggesting we are witnessing a “proper trade war” among major economies. This has driven a strategic shift: French companies are increasingly seeking M&A targets on US soil to produce directly within the market. Interestingly, Irisson notes that for the first time, European SaaS companies are trading at higher median valuations than their US counterparts.
In Africa, the impact of US tariffs remains a major hurdle, though the effects vary by country. John Blake, Partner at Translink South Africa, explains that uncertainty regarding tariff regimes, such as the 30% tariff on many South African exports, complicates dealmaking. African economies are responding by leveraging regional trade and exploring alternative markets like China. Despite these headwinds, Blake notes that many economies remain functional, with central banks forecasting only modest impacts on growth.
The shift to “accepted risk”
Perhaps the most significant psychological shift in 2025 was the move away from waiting for perfection. David Strempel, Partner at Translink CF Italy and Vice Chairperson of Translink International, describes this as the era of “Accepted Risk”. By mid-2025, it became clear that volatility was not a passing storm but the operating climate.
Buyers and sellers are no longer waiting for lower interest rates or geopolitical calm. Instead, they are diligently modelling these variables. Strempel highlights the Pedrollo Group, a €500 million water pump leader and a buy-side client at Translink CF, which maintained its acquisition pace despite global uncertainty by prioritising geographic reach and product expertise. The hesitation of early 2024 has given way to action, executed with greater diligence and creativity.
Leveraging AI and global expansion
To navigate this complexity, firms are increasingly turning to technology. Tero Nummenpää of Translink Corporate Finance Finland notes that while Covid normalised online meetings, the new wave is defined by AI-powered tools. These tools are not necessarily reducing workload but are allowing teams to produce far richer materials in the same amount of time. Marc Irisson adds that by automating low-value, repetitive tasks, AI allows senior advisors to focus on managing complex situations, ultimately delivering better service to clients.
Paralleling this technological advancement is Translink’s physical expansion. The group’s CEO, Leandro Rosado, highlights the addition of partners like Derenia Capital in North Africa and a rebrand in Norway as critical steps in strengthening the group’s global footprint. These developments provide clients with direct access to local expertise in high-potential emerging markets.
A 2026 outlook of valuations and structural creativity
Looking ahead to 2026, two major themes stand out: valuation divergence and structural creativity. David Strempel points out that while public markets trade at “eye-watering” multiples, mid-market valuations in the Eurozone have compressed to their lowest levels since 2017 (around 7.7x EBITDA). For disciplined acquirers, this represents a rare window to buy quality assets at attractive prices.
However, the “plain-vanilla” cash-at-close deal is becoming an exception. To bridge valuation gaps in a high-rate environment, dealmakers are utilising earnouts, seller financing, and private credit. Marc Irisson cautions that valuations will likely remain under pressure for average assets, noting that only prime assets are selling for strong premiums. Nevertheless, with strategic players needing M&A to fuel growth and significant “dry powder“ available, the pressure to invest remains.
Seizing opportunity in a complex environment
For 2026, the data points toward a market that will reward creativity and preparedness. While public market valuations remain stable, the significant compression in mid-market multiples offers a rare window for strategic buyers to acquire quality assets at attractive prices. However, success in the coming year will rely on structural creativity, utilising earnouts, seller financing, and private credit to bridge valuation gaps.
With a strengthened global footprint, including new representation in North Africa and a rebranded presence in Norway, Translink Corporate Finance is uniquely positioned to help clients navigate this complex environment. Whether by leveraging AI for richer insights or managing cross-border complexities, the team is ready to transform “accepted risk” into premium outcomes.
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Translink International AG
