The global Logistics M&A market is undergoing a crucial phase of stabilisation in 2025, moving away from the post-pandemic volatility towards a more normalised and strategic environment. After a period of structural upheaval driven by inflation and supply chain disruptions, a new landscape is emerging, defined by valuation stability, a focus on resilience and the integration of critical technologies. In the first half of 2025, the logistics sector saw 613 deals, a steady 5.7% increase compared to the same period in 2024, according to the 2025 Translink Corporate Finance M&A Logistics Insights Report.
This resilience in activity signals a market that is maturing and prioritising long-term strategic fit over reactive capacity expansion. Here, Translink Corporate Finance analyses the key themes that defined logistics M&A activity in H1 2025 and offers insights into what they mean for businesses navigating this evolving market.
Valuation stability amid macroeconomic tension
After the peak valuations of 2021 and 2022, logistics valuations have found a new equilibrium. The market is witnessing a clear stabilisation as margins normalise, and financing costs remain a factor. The median valuation multiple for contract logistics companies remained robust at 9.8x EV/EBITDA in H1 2025, reflecting the high demand for modern warehousing and last-mile capabilities. Conversely, freight forwarding has seen a correction to 6.6x, driven by falling spot rates and tariff uncertainty.
This divergence is creating a “two-speed” market. Investors are deploying capital with extreme precision, favouring assets that offer protection against geopolitical friction and those that have successfully integrated digital tools. Acquirers are no longer willing to pay premiums for standard capacity; they are conducting deeper due diligence to identify platforms that offer genuine operational efficiency and regional dominance.
“We are witnessing a shift from volume-driven M&A to capability-driven M&A,” states Andreas Hüchting, Partner at Translink CF Germany. “The era of acquiring capacity just to meet temporary demand spikes is over. Today’s buyers are disciplined and are specifically targeting companies that offer resilience against supply chain fragmentation. Strategic buyers are looking for ‘critical size’ to offer competitive pricing, while maintaining a focus on core, resilient assets. This creates a selective environment, but one that is highly rewarding for specialised players.”
Sustainability and technology become the new dividing lines
Nowhere is the flight to quality more evident than in the market’s emphasis on sustainability and technology. These two factors have shifted from optional “add-ons” to central pillars of valuation. With supply chains contributing heavily to global carbon emissions, regulatory pressure and customer demand are forcing a transformation. Simultaneously, the integration of AI, IoT and automation is separating the market’s innovators from the laggards.
“Sustainability has become a definitive benchmark in dealmaking, comparable to financial KPIs,” says Lina Ismail, Partner at Translink CF Belgium. “For logistics owners preparing for a sale, the narrative must be backed by green credentials and technological maturity. Investors are looking for business models that are future-proof. A company that has already embraced decarbonisation and circular economy principles is regarded as a premium asset, while those lagging behind face a shrinking pool of potential acquirers and compressed valuations.”
Translink CF’s analysis reveals how three main drivers are reshaping the sector’s future:
- Sustainability: The push for decarbonisation is creating opportunities for “Green Logistics”. Companies embedding green practices – such as fleet electrification, renewable energy in warehousing and reverse logistics for the circular economy – are attracting higher interest.
- Technology: Automation and digitalisation are now prerequisites for premium valuations. Technologies such as Generative AI for predictive logistics, IoT for smart asset tracking and warehouse robotisation are driving efficiency and justifying higher multiples, particularly in contract logistics.
- Geopolitics: Rising trade tensions and protectionist policies are disrupting global routes, prompting a surge in regional M&A. Logistics players are engaging in geographical expansion to create buffers against regional downturns and to support “nearshoring” strategies, moving closer to end markets to minimise risk.
Deal volume reflects a flight to quality
While the market is selective, it remains active. The 613 deals completed in H1 2025 demonstrate that strategic buyers and private equity firms continue to see long-term value in the sector. However, the nature of these deals has changed. There is a strong trend toward vertical integration and reaching critical size to streamline processes and gain control over the value chain.
The data indicates that the logistics M&A market is not retracting but rather consolidating around quality. Activity suggests a healthy market where buyers are taking more time to find the right strategic fit – specifically targeting niche logistics segments like healthcare or security, which offer higher value-added services and command valuation premiums.
As the logistics M&A landscape continues to evolve towards 2030, success will require a deep understanding of shifting valuation metrics, the impact of the green transition and the critical importance of technological integration. With over five decades of experience and a global footprint, Translink Corporate Finance can guide clients through these complexities, ensuring their strategic ambitions are safeguarded and that they get the deal done.
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Translink International AG
